Ambreen Fatima stood on a street in Karachi this week, clutching her children and a photograph of her husband. Her husband is one of 10 Pakistani crew members aboard the oil tanker Honour 25, which was seized by Somali pirates on April 21. According to the Marine News Magazine, piracy activity off the Somali coast is escalating as naval ships are diverted to the Red Sea. Because the Strait of Hormuz is choked by conflict, commercial carriers are forcing ships to take lengthy detours around the southern tip of Africa. These ships now sail directly into a volatile strike zone where pirate networks are reportedly forging alliances with militant forces.

As the seas grow more dangerous, the diplomatic map of the region is shifting. In Jerusalem on May 18, Dr. Mohamed Hagi presented his credentials to President Isaac Herzog as the first ambassador Somaliland has ever stationed in a foreign country. Israel and Somaliland signed a joint declaration of mutual recognition, pledging cooperation in technology and agriculture, per the Times of Israel. This recognition comes as the Berbera corridor faces a resurgence of piracy and regional instability.

Read together, the return of piracy and the sudden recognition of a breakaway state suggest a region being reordered by necessity. The link between these developments is unstated in official cables, but the physical reality of the sea lanes suggests a vacuum is being filled. As traditional order fractures, both criminals and new states are moving to claim the abandoned spaces of the Horn of Africa.