Frederic Lasserre spoke to a hushed audience at a Vienna industry conference in late April. The head of analysis at Gunvor Group held up a chart showing vanishing inventories. If the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drags on for another month, oil markets will hit tank bottoms, Lasserre said. Consuming countries are running out of stockpiles. The world is nearing a nightmare scenario of physical depletion.

OPEC+ nations agreed to a modest production boost in June to stabilize the market. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the decision. But the increase cannot bypass the Iranian chokehold. One-fifth of the global oil and gas trade remains trapped in the Gulf. U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit have begun boarding commercial ships like the M/V Blue Star III. They are searching for vessels violating the blockade.

This paper identifies the terminal logic of Imperial Triage. The U.S. Navy spends billions to escort tankers while domestic budget travel collapses. Spirit Airlines has parked its entire fleet as jet fuel prices hit $153 a barrel. The elite preserve their energy margins. The working class loses the right to move.

Iran's own inventories are hitting tank tops. The country has nowhere to send its oil. It has roughly one month of storage capacity remaining. We are watching two systems collide in a war of logistical exhaustion. The price of this stalemate is paid at the pump and the airport terminal.