In Cleveland, Michelle Sutton closed her laptop after viewing a $6,000 business-class fare to Split, Croatia. Thousands of miles away, an Emirati patrol boat idled beside a rusted tanker anchored in the Gulf of Oman, baking in the spring heat. According to the AP, the United States is now explicitly warning shipping companies against paying Iranian tolls for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

The resulting maritime bottleneck is devastating global kerosene markets. Jet fuel prices in Europe jumped to €153.84 per barrel by the end of April, per the International Air Transport Association. "If fuel prices, which represent 25% to 50% of an airline’s total operating expenses, remain high and airlines have not hedged, they could go bankrupt," Dublin City University professor Marina Efthymiou told DW.

The market ruthlessly validated her model. By Thursday morning, Spirit Airlines had entirely ceased operations, citing escalating financial struggles tied to the fuel spike. For Sutton, who paid half that price to fly to Madrid last year using points, the math was simple. "Which is wild," she told Bloomberg. The structural reality is that Middle Eastern geopolitical friction is acting as a massive, unlegislated tax on the American vacationer.